Reporting on Equity Evaluation of major airlines in the industry - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 12 Words: 3579 Downloads: 8 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Business Essay Type Narrative essay Did you like this example? This report is based on the equity evaluation of an airline Ryanair which is a European leading low fare Airline belongs to Ireland with its headquarter in Dublin. One of its biggest operational bases is at London Stansted Airport in UK. It is one of the key players with in the market, and perhaps the most profitable air line. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Reporting on Equity Evaluation of major airlines in the industry" essay for you Create order Ryanair is Worlds favourite airline that operates in 41 bases and more than 1100 low fare routes across 26 countries and connecting 153 destinations. Ryanair has fleet of 232 new Boeing 737-800 aircraft with orders of additional 82 new aircraft that are expected to deliver over the next 2.5 years. Ryanair currently has employees of more than 7,000 and carry approximately 73 million passengers in the fiscal year 2010/11. Business Environment Every business has to set its own characteristics and profiles their competitors. For this every business establish its own unique mission and vision statements and the key objectives in order to satisfy their goals. Moreover, they usually set their mission, vision and objectives to serve the society as well as benefitting the community throughout their business cycle. When we talk about the airlines, the determination of the demands, preferences and taste of people is still valid. The suggestions of every people around the organization are also essential to create a just and comprehensive strategy. Mission of Ryanair It is the main mission of every airline to deliver the safety of their passenger, but how did the Ryanair attract the tourists and other individuals to travel is because of their undertaking to make air travel inexpensive, simple, convenient form of transportation in the world. The idea of low cost airlines are based on the probably demands of the people to fly more often when it is inexpensive or affordable to fly by aeroplane. Ryanair is the most suggested airlines when it comes to low- cost marketing. Vision Ryanair has a vision of a world where the fare could lower to reduce rates to bring the steady traffic of business people and tourists to their region. Its concept is not new in every airlines and their vision only underpins their mission. The broader vision in building an effective business and push on the tourism is more applicable (2003). Its a major challenge for the Ryanair to sustain their mission and yet with accordance of their vision in promoting tourism. Corporate Strategy Ryanairs objective is to maintain itself as the leading European low-fares scheduled passenger airline through continued implementation of cost reductions, operating efficiencies and offerings of its low fares service. Ryanair objective is to offer low fares that create increased passenger traffic while continuously focus on cost-containment and operating efficiencies. The key essentials of Ryanairs strategy include the following Low Operating Costs Safety and Quality Maintenance Development of Operating Results through Ancillary Services Focused Criteria for Growth Taking Advantage of the Internet Porter Generic Strategy Ryanair focuses on the cost cutting strategy according to the porters generic strategy model to position itself in the marketplace. Cost leadership strategy is based upon business organizing and controls its value-adding activities to be the lowest cost producer of a product with an industry. The company provides the reduced cost of fare than its competitors in the airline. On the other hand Ryanair has also become focuser as it is concentrated on an narrow customer segment that consist of Irish and UK business people who could not afford to fly major airlines. Nature of Industry with Reference to Strategic Grouping Ryanair is competing in high competitive environment where the competitors are competing to pull market share from their rivals. One of the reason for high competitive rivalry is boom of travel industry and also the European Union regulations. These regulations are intended to improve quality and prices of airline industry. If we consider the last decade we come to know that the air travel grew by 7% per year. Both business and leisure purposes travel grew worldwide. The scheduled airlines have carried more than 1.5 billion passengers last year. In case of the leisure market, the availability of large aircraft like Boeing 747 has made it suitable and reasonable for people to travel further to new and exotic destinations. Developing countries governments realized the benefits of tourism to their national economies and urged the development of resorts and infrastructure to allure tourists from the prosperous countries in Western Europe and North America. As the economies of develo ping countries are growing, their own citizens are becoming the new international tourists of the future. Strategic Grouping of European Airline Industry Price/ Quality Limited Market Coverage Local Area 1. Train Up Market 1. British Airways 2. American Airways 3. Lufthansa Discounter 1. Ryanair 2. Easy Jet Big 4 Virgin Atlantic According to this classification the Ryanair comes in the low cost segment or discounters. Airline Industry Life Cycle Same like living creatures, industry also has its circle of life. The stages of industry lifecycle include fragmentation, shake out, maturity an decline (Kotler 2003).The industry life cycle can be represented by having a look of the following figure: Product (Industry) Life Cycle Stages The first countries in Europe to grip air transport were France, Germany and the Netherlands. In 1919 KLM was established, still the oldest carrier. The first flight was from London to Schiphol, Amsterdam transported two English people in 1920. Major European airlines of the time like KLMs initial growth mainly depended to service routes with far-flung colonial possessions (Dutch Indies).The loss of the Dutch Empire was the only reason that KLM found itself based at a small country with small potential passengers, which relying mostly on transfer traffic, and was first to introduce the hub-system to assist easy connections. France started an airmail service to Morocco in 1919 which was sold i n 1927, renamed Aeropostale, and with more capital invested become a major international carrier. Aeropostale went bankrupt in 1933. It became nationalized and merged with many other airlines to become Air France. In 1926 the German airline industry started with Lufthansa and became a major investor in airlines outside of Europe, founding Varig and Avianca. Junkers, Dornier, and Fokker built the most advanced German airlines in the world at the time. German air travel got peak in the mid-1930s, when Nazi propaganda ministers approved the launch of commercial zeppelin service, the big airships but it was fact that they used flammable hydrogen gas which raised safety concerns that terminated with the Hindenburg disaster of 1937. Imperial Airways was United Kingdoms flag carrier which became BOAC (British Overseas Airlines Co.) in 1939. Imperial Airways made use of huge Handley-Page biplanes for routes between London, Middle East and India. Imperial aircrafts image in the middle of the Rubal Khali was being maintained by Bedouins and was among the most famous pictures from the heyday of the British Empire The deregulation of the European Union airspace in the early 1990s has had substantial effect on structure of the industry there. The shift towards budget airlines on shorter routes has been significant. Airlines such asÂÂ  EasyJetÂÂ  andÂÂ  RyanairÂÂ  got growth at the expense of the traditional national airlines. The trend has been there for these national airlines themselves to be privatized such as have occurred forÂÂ  AerLingusÂÂ  andÂÂ  British Airways. Other national airlines, including ItalysÂÂ  Alitalia, have faced chiefly with the rapid increase of oil prices in early 2008. Industry Profitability In View of Porter 5 Forces Model From a strategic management perspective it is useful for organisations to understand the competitive forces in their industry or sector since these will conclude the prettiness of that industry and the likely success and failure of particular organisations within it. The porter five core elements/forces are: Competitive Rivalry Threat of new entrants Threat of substitutes The Bargaining power of buyer The Bargaining power of suppliers Porters Five Forces Model Rivalry among Existing Competitors (Intense Rivalry) There is very tough competition among the competitors of European airline industry especially that lie in the same tier such as Easy Jet, Ryanair and Aer Lingus. The services level is same for all players in the third quadrant are the same with either low or no differentiation. The market in which the Ryanair is operating is saturated with Ryanair is holding the biggest chunk of customers and is the dominating player. Threat of Entrant (Low) Threat of new entrant is low because it requires quite high capital investment to enter in this industry. It is also hard to find suitable airports. Even with capital investment it is very hard for new entrants to challenge incumbent players like Ryanair that has experience of years and solid name in the market. Threat of Substitutes (High) Threat of substitutes for a short haul airline can be in the form of land travels and if we talk about indirect substitutes then it is video conferencing which may reduce the need for air travel. The most important point to mention here is that in both of the above mentioned cases there is no switching cost for the customers so they will not feel any hesitation to choose in between these. Bargaining Power of Buyers (High) Bargaining power of buyers is high as people are well informed of prices and deals via different resources and internet is one of them. Now most of airlines they are trying to reach this market segment where they can acquire more market share by providing lowest fares. The customers are price sensitive and they will switch to any other airline which will give them lowest fares. Bargaining power of Suppliers (High) The supplier power is medium to high, because the airplane providers are the ones with good amount of power in their hand while ancillary suppliers being the ones with low power hence balancing out the supplier power of the industry. Regulators and airport authorities have medium power and this has been balanced out by more use of regional airports rather than the main or national airports. Competitive Strategy and Three Generic Strategies Ryanair has been following mix cost based focus strategies according to competitive strategies. Cutting costs have been focused and Ryanair is delivering this benefit to their customers. The company not only focuses on techniques that save them money rather it is implemented in their system from top to bottom everywhere. Segmentation Strategy Differentiation Strategy Cost Leadership Narrow Market Scope Broad Market Scope Uniqueness Competency Low Cost Comptency Forecast of the Performance of the Firm of Choice Common Size Statements Balance Sheet 2004-2005 2004 CS 2004 2005 CS 2005 Fixes Assets Intangible Assets 44499 2% 30449 1% Tangible Assets 1576526 54% 2092283 55% Total Fixed Assets 1621025 55% 2122732 56% Current Assets Cash Liquid Resources 1257350 43% 1613643 42% Accounts Recievable 14932 1% 20644 1% Other Assets 19251 1% 24612 1% Inventories 26440 1% 28069 1% Total Current Assets 1317973 45% 1686968 44% Total Assets 2938998 100% 3809700 100% Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 67936 2% 92118 2% Accrued Expenses Other Liabilities 338208 12% 436187 11% Current Maturities of Long Term Debts 80337 3% 120997 3% Short term Borrowings 345 0% 7938 0% Total Current Liabilities 486826 17% 657240 17% Non Current Liabilities Provisions for Liabilities and Charges 94192 3% 112745 3% Other Cre ditors 30047 1% 18444 0% Long Term Debts 872645 30% 1293860 34% Total Other Liabilities 996884 34% 1425049 37% Shareholders funds equity Called Up Share capital 9643 0% 9675 0% Share Premium account 560406 19% 565756 15% Profit Loss account 885239 30% 1511980 40% Share Holders equity 1455288 50% 1727411 45% Total libilities Shareholders equity 2938998 100% 3809700 100% Balance Sheet 2006-2009 2006 CS 2006 2007 CS 2007 2008 CS 2008 2009 CS 2009 Non Current Assets Property Plant Equipment 2532988 55% 2884053 51% 3582126 57% 3644824 57% Intangible assets 46841 1% 46841 1% 46841 1% 46841 1% Available For Sale Financial Assets 406075 7% 311462 5% 93150 1% Derivative Financial Instruments 763 0% 59970 1% Total Non-Current Assets 2580592 56% 336969 6% 3940429 62% 3940429 62% Current Assets Inventories 3422 0% 2420 0% 1997 0% 2075 0% Other Assets 29453 1% 77707 1% 169580 3% 91053 1% Current Tax 1585 0% Trade Receivables 29909 1% 23412 0% 34178 1% 41791 1% Derivative Financial Instruments 18872 0% 52736 1% 10228 0% 129962 2% Restricted Cash 204040 4% 258808 5% 292431 5% 291601 5% Financial Ass ets Cash 3 months 328927 7% 592774 10% 406247 6% 403401 6% Cash Cash Equivalents 1439004 31% 1346419 24% 1470849 23% 1583194 25% Total Current Assets 2053627 44% 2354276 41% 2387122 38% 2543077 40% Total Assets 4634219 100% 5691245 100% 6327551 100% 6387862 100% Current Liabilities Trade Payables 79283 2% 54801 1% 129289 2% 132971 2% Accrued Expenses Other Liabilities 570614 12% 807136 14% 919349 15% 905715 14% Current Maturities of Debt 153311 3% 178918 3% 366801 6% 202941 3% Derivative Financial Instruments 27417 1% 56053 1% 141711 2% 137439 2% Current Tax 15247 0% 20822 0% 425 0% Total Current Liabilities 845872 18% 1117730 20% 1557150 25% 1379191 22% Non Current Liabilities Provisions 16772 0% 28719 1% 44810 1% 71964 1% Derivative Financial Instruments 81897 2% 58666 1% 75685 1% 54074 1% Deferred Income Tax Liability 127260 3% 151032 3% 148088 2% 155524 2% Other creditors 46066 1% 112177 2% 99930 2% 106549 2% Non Current Maturities of Debt 1524417 33% 1683148 30% 1899694 30% 2195499 34% Total Non Current Liabilities 1796362 39% 2033742 36% 2268207 36% 2583610 40% Shareholders funds equity Issued Share Capital 9790 0% 9822 0% 9465 0% 9354 0% Share Premium Account 596231 13% 607433 11% 615815 10% 617426 10% Cash Redemption Reserve 378 0% 493 0% Retained Earnings 1467623 32% 1905211 33% 2000422 32% 1777727 28% Other Reserves -81659 -2% 17307 0% -123886 -2% 20061 0% Share Holders equity 1991985 43% 25397 73 45% 2502194 40% 2425061 38% Total liabilities Shareholders equity 4634219 100% 5691245 100% 6327551 100% 6387862 100% Income Statement 2004-2006 2004 CS 2004 2005 CS 2005 2006 CS 2006 Operating Revenue Scheduled Revenues 924566 1128116 1433377 Ancilinary revenues 149658 208470 259153 Total Operating revenues 1074224 1336586 1692530 Operating Expenses Staff Costs -123624 -12% -140997 -11% -171412 -10% Depreciation Amortization -101391 -9% -98703 -7% -124405 -7% Fuel Oil -462466 -27% Maintenance, Materials Repairs -37417 -2% Marketing Distribution Costs -13912 -1% Aircraft Rentals -47376 -3% Route Charges -164577 -10% Airport Handling Charges -216301 -13% Other Operating Expenses -597922 -56% -767397 -57% -79618 -5% Total operating Expenses Excluding Good Will -822937 -77% -1007097 -75% -1317484 -78% Operating Profit 251287 23% 329489 25% 375046 22% Amortization of Goodwill -2342 0% -2125 0% Operating profit 248945 23% 327364 24% Other expenses Foreign Ex change Loss/Gain 3217 0% -2323 0% -1234 0% Gain/Loss on Disposal of Assets -9 0% 47 0% 815 0% Interest Receivable Similar Income 23891 2% 28342 2% 38219 2% Interest Payable Similar Charge -47564 -4% -57499 -4% -73958 -4% Total Other Expenses -20465 -2% -31433 -2% -36158 -2% Profit on Ordinary Activities before Tax 228480 21% 295931 22% 338888 20% Tax On Profit On Ordinary activities -21869 -2% -29190 -2% -32176 -2% Profit/Loss For The Financial Year 206611 19% 266741 20% 306712 18% Income Statement 2007-2009 2007 CS 2007 2008 CS 2008 2009 CS 2009 Operating Revenue Scheduled Revenues 1874791 225692 2343868 Ancilinary revenues 362104 488130 598097 Total Operating revenues 2236895 2713822 2941965 Operating Expenses Staff Costs -226580 -10% -285343 -11% -309296 -11% Depreciation Amortization -143503 -6% -175949 -6% -256117 -9% Fuel Oil -693331 -31% -791327 -29% -1257062 -43% Maintenance, Materials Repairs -42046 -2% -56709 -2% -66811 -2% Marketing Distribution Costs -23795 -1% -17168 -1% -12753 0% Aircraft Rentals -58183 -3% -72670 -3% -78209 -3% Route Charges -199240 -9% -259280 -10% -286559 -10% Airport Handling Charges -273613 -12% -396326 -15% -443387 -15% Other Operating Expenses -104859 -5% -121970 -4% -139140 -5% Total operating Expenses Excluding Good Will -1765150 -79% -2176742 -80% -2849334 -97 % Operating Profit 471745 21% 537080 20% 92631 3% Amortization of Goodwill Operating profit Other expenses Foreign Exchange Loss/Gain -906 0% -5606 0% 4441 0% Gain/Loss on Disposal of Assets 91 0% 12153 0% Interest Receivable Similar Income 62983 3% 83957 3% 75552 3% Interest Payable Similar Charge -82876 -4% -97088 -4% -130544 -4% Total Other Expenses -208708 -9% -98153 -4% 273118 9% Profit on Ordinary Activities before Tax 451037 20% 438927 16% -180487 -6% Tax On Profit On Ordinary activities -15437 -1% -48219 -2% 11314 0% Profit/Loss For The Financial Year 435600 19% 390708 14% -169173 -6% Appropriate Absolute Valuation Models Dividend Discount Model A dividend discount model is a financial model that values shares at the discounted value of future dividend payments. A share is worth the present value of all future dividends. As the values shares on the actual cash flows received by investors, it is theoretically the most correct valuation model. Dividend Discount Valuation A dividend discount model would specifically be a discounted cash flow (DCF) that uses dividend forecasts over several stages. If it is a case that there are any dividends which have been announced but the share has not yet gone ex- dividend for that then these are recognized amounts in the near future and it does not require forecasts. It is possibility for forecasts that based on detailed financial modelsÂÂ  for the near future. Beyond that the forecasts are based on less detailed models (e.g. assuming a slow reduction in profit growth and a fix payout ratios may be used Assume a fixed growth rate beyond some point (e.g. after five or ten years) provides a terminal valueÂÂ  to be intended at that point If you sum up the interest series we get, This p is then adjusted by various factors e.g the size of company Where k is expected return which is equal =yield + expected growth. Where D1= D0 (1+g) Then P0 = D1/k-g Free Cash Flow Approach Free cash flow (FCF) determines how much money a company gets after take away maintenance Capex. It is significant because it provides valuation of the existing business without harder to measure value of investment in growth and new ventures. The last should be value more than the money that is being invested in them. The free cash flow would be resulted same what the dividends would be when a company decided to pay out as much as it could in dividends exclusive of either running down its operations or rising debt. Free cash flow (FCF) is often used in discounted cash flow valuations. Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) A free cash flow to firm is a measure of financial performance which indicates the net amount of cash generated for the firm, consisting of expenses, taxes and changes in net working capital and investments. Free cash flow (FCF) is calculated using the formula FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1-T) FCinv Wcinv A positive value depicts that the firm has left with cash after expenses. A negative value represents that the firm has not made enough revenue to cover its investment actions and its costs. In this situation, an investor should look deeper to assess why it is happening. It would be either the major investment activities or company is facing deeper problems. Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) This is the measure of how much cash can be paid to the equity shareholders of the company after expenditures, reinvestment, and debt repayment. The cash flow to equity is calculated by using this formula: FCFE =ÂÂ  NetÂÂ  Income Net Capital Expenditure Change in Net Working Capital + New Debt Debt Repayment. FCFE= NI Int(1-t) + net borrowings This alternative valuation method gained popularity as the dividend discount models usefulness became increasingly questionable. Residual Income A residual income model use to values securities using a combination of book value of the company (i.e. its NAV), and a present value based on accounting profits. The value of the company is the sum of 1) the NAV at valuation time and 2) the residual income present value: profits are expected to surpass the required rate of return on equity. The residual return is calculated as: (R-r) * B where B = NAV R = the return on accounting profits and owners equity r = required rate of return on equity. It can also be expressed as net proft- (r*B) The importance of the extra profit in excess of the required rate of return is measure of the wealth that the company creates for shareholders. The company sums to the value of its assets and justifies a company being value greater than the value of its assets. The value of a company therefore should be the sum of this and its assets. The NAV will differ from year to year affects the computation of the returns. The change in the net profit minus dividends and other returns to shareholders, plus capital increased. Valuation on wealth creation is abstractly similar to EVA. The Residual income models are suited to securities valuation where EVA is principally useful to management. The residual income models advantage is that it is based on accounting measures of profit and value of assets. The main objection of residual income is that as it is relied on accounting numbers which often fail to imitate the true economic value of assets and cash flows. Asset Based Models Asset- based models compute the value of a firm as the sum of the market values for the individual components of the firm, less the market value of the liabilities. This can be expressed as: Value of firm= Market value of assets- Market value of liabilities Asset based models are useful to estimate minimum value. They are easy to use and understand. Moreover they are also useful for comparing firms of similar size and nature. The disadvantage is that the book value is an asset based model is based on historical cost. The firms value is largely derived from its assets, whose value is dependent on management choice of accounting principles. Asset based models ignore future growth potential of the firm. Actual Valuation Reporting The value of the firm is calculated using the following models The Value of Firm Using Dividend Discount Model We cant apply the dividend discount model as Ryanair has never given dividends till yet but there are plans to give dividends from 2013 onwards. The Value of Firm Using Dividend Discount Model We will calculate the free cash flow to firm using the formula: Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) = Net Income + Amortization Changes in Working Capital -Capital Expenditure Where, Change in working capital = Cash + Accounts Receivable + Inventory Accounts Payable Accrued Liability Capital Expenditure = (Changes in assets current year previous year) (Changes in Liability current year previous year) Note: The values have been taken from the income statement and balance sheet of Ryanair available at: https://www.ryanair.com/en/investor/investor-relations-news Changes in Working Capital = 588374 Capital Expenditure = -77133 Free Cash Flow to Firm = 424297000 Value of Firm Using FCFF = Free cash flow from firm / WACC Beta Value Ryanair = 1.03 Cost of equity = (Market Risk Premium * Equity Beta) + Risk Free Rate Where, Market Risk Premium = Expected Rate of return Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate UK 2009 = 4.55% Expected Rate of Return = 9.99% Cost of Equity = 10.15% Cost of Debt = 5.6% Ryanair Tax rate = 11% WACC = 15% Value of Firm Using FCFF = Free cash flow from firm / WACC = 2803008000 Euros The value of Firm using Free Cash Flow to Equity Model Free Cash Flow to Equity = FCFF + Net Borrowings Interest (1-t) Free Cash Flow to Equity = 301189 Euros Value of Firm Using Cash Flow to Equity = FCFE/Ke where Ke is cost of equity. Note: FCFE is calculated in excel (excel file attached) Value of Firm Using Free Cash Flow to Equity = 2967379000 Euros 4.0 Value of Firm using Residual Income Residual Income= NI (Net Income) (Cost of Equity* Value of Equity) Residual Income= -415317000 Note: Value of firm using residual income cant be calculated as the company does not provide dividends as we need to have value of g for calculating firms value. 5.0 Value of Firm Using Asset Based Model Asset based model for finding value of firm are used when the firm possess the natural resources like oil, gas, etc. As Ryanair does not possess any sort of natural resources, so we cant use this model to find the value of the firm.